BEFORE US HIT IRAN
21 June 2025
Earthquake in Iran .
Earthquake of 5.2 M in Semnan at with epicenter nearly 50 Km South West of Semnan has raised quite a few doubts.
Semnan had attained international attention as early as 2006
with the Iranian space program. Semnan Region then caught attention in 2008 as
SPND, the Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research came under the row
for upscaling Iranian Nuclear warhead Programs. Rangin Kaman - or the Raibow
project was started in the desert region of Garmsar. The location was ideal for
Long and Extended Range Missile Programs beginning with ICBMS of 3000 km range onwards.
Iran developed a massive area here, at Ivanaki into a highly sensitive belt
under the cover of extreme security with the extraction and purification of
Tritium began around 2008. Iranian Revolutionary Guards - IRGC created five ancillary
companies around the time of which PETSAR , Pishtazan e Tosee Sanati Aria Razi
came under the eyes of the international observers and the Journalists. It
needs no high tech education in the beginning of the 21st century to understand
the role of Tritium in the making of Hydrogen Bombs.
When Donald Trump Administration and IAEA , distances Iran's
nuclear weapon capabilities to be months away from the time of Israel mounting
attack , the question remains. Why did Iran initiate development of ICBMs capable
of delivering nuclear war heads as early as 2013?
Presumably the major earthquake occurred near to the Ivanaki
site , 50 to 60 kms away from Teheran, the site of Rainbow Project. The project
area falls on the valley of mount Kalraz in Kuh e Seffid Region.
Whatever the FBI findings may be, no one in the world can take
the matters as accidental on the forgetfulness Wheeler.
The Hydrogen bomb Technology was said to be forgotten in the
toilet of a Train by the physicist JA Wheeler in 1953. There were later reports
of a Classified key nuclear technology that remained left out in some other
Library. Other matters related to as many as a few hundred Dirty Bombs made of
Nuclear wastes that disappeared during the Breakdown of the Soviet Union. China
and Iran have made advancements in the Hydrogen Bomb development and nonnuclear
Explosions. In 1980s , there were reports that China made Neutron Bombs with
technology stolen from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in
California. Also, US had alleged that China improved the Neutron Bombs through
the technology stolen again in 1995.
Earthquake in Semnan becomes doubtful of a Nuclear Implosion
only if an accident can occur while handling, as Iran, like Pakistan has not
much trained hands to handle assemblage of Nuclear Warheads with Long range
Missiles. Due to the sanctions and other constraints, Iran could not conduct
enough test launches to have careful handling of the assembly lines.
16 June 2025
Fordow Nuclear
Facility Iran.
With a clear data on a 2.5 M Earthquake jolting the area of
Fordow, the consequences of striking a nuclear facility becomes more
reinforced.
With the earth quake of Fordow following a strike by Israel, the
inferences of induced seismic activity becomes more prominent.
In the first round of attacks last week, Israel had inflicted
heavy damages to Iranian Nuclear Facilities in Isfahan and Natanz..
Meanwhile, Kalat and Sistan areas of Baluchistan near to the
Iran Border had experienced Tremors of 3.1, 2.90 and 4.40 M respectively.
Friday, October 11, 202
OCTOBER WAR: Made
Together to Hit?
On 05 October 2024 two earthquakes occurred in Central Iran. The
first one was 4.48 M at 8.59 AM at a depth of 6. 2 miles and the second
one of 4.1 strength happened at 1.13 pm at a depth of 9.3 miles.
These two earthquakes led to a host of speculations
on probable nuclear tests carried out by Iran in the wake of a
counter offensive in retaliation for raining Missiles to Israel. Amidst these
high pitched notes on weapon grade nuclear arsenal tests, another earthquake
occurred on 06 October 2024, at 12.45 AM of 4.6 M struck Semnan
Region of Iran at a depth of 6.2 miles. If at all Iran had conducted
nuclear tests, it would be a question on the International
assessment on the Nuclear Programme of Iran. If the seismological station
of Norway situated over 3500kms from the Soviet Nuclear test location in
Kazakhstan could pick up a small explosion of a quarter kiloton, today
with thermal radiation mapping through satellite imaging together with highly
sensitive Seismography can be integrated to detect nuclear tests of any
dimension. Better diagnosis can give a clear picture to differentiate
between chemical explosions and detonations for mining and nuclear explosions.
There would be a marked difference between the wave pattern and travel
time of waves in an earthquake and explosion. The time of signal
generation is in the fraction of a microsecond in a nuclear explosion may be to
the scale of 0.0000001 seconds, whereas the earthquake waves by the friction of
plates or rock formations would be longer to the extent of quite a
few seconds or minutes . Here, a speculation of any kind would have been
unnecessary , as the Iranian nuclear programme was under watch.
The tunnels of Hamas were made open to the world by
Israel in Gaza exposes the capability of Iran to employ the
“Decoupling” method in nuclear tests, more effectively than any other
country. Horizontal drilling at very lower depths forming chambers
to hold test devices could deceive the seismic observatories. The signals would
not be as sharp as that from a vertical well. In such a case,
Iran can have the capability to conduct concealed tests
of massive dimensions to the extent of a few kilotons, without being
noticed. Earthquakes in Iran on 5th and ^th October were
reported to have the same depth of 6.2 miles and almost near magnitudes seismic
intensity of little over 4 M. This can certainly be a reason for
speculations on the probable nuclear test unless it is a repeat of the explosion.
The sounding of nuclear tests by Iran surfaces amidst
apprehensions in the American and European media on the possible
attack by Israel on the Nuclear Installations of Iran. Four decades
back, Israel had proven the capability to strike the nuclear facilities in
Iraq, where Iran could not be successful in their effort . It was
the first ever successful strike against any nuclear installation in the
world. Nuclear reactor at Osiraq in Iraq was hit on 07 June 1981.
Saddam Hussain had been vigorously working on the Nuclear
Programme and achieved much progress by 1980 working in
collaboration with Italy and France. Around the same time the term of US
President Jimmy Carter had ended and Ronal Regan had won the elections.
The political change in US administration was expected to revamp the 1978
Nuclear Nonproliferation Act of Carter. Osiraq strike was
visibly not acceptable to Regan administration and to make matters worse,
Israel had used US made F16 aircrafts for the raid. As a sign of displeasure,
Ronald Reagan Administration suspended further supply F16 aircrafts to
Israel. Netanyahu may not take a calculated diplomatic conflict with US
Administration at this point of time by repeating the past.
It took nearly two decades for the US to come up with a policy
on nuclear proliferation that came to be known as Bush doctrine of 2002.
National Security Strategy of 2002, also known as the Bush
Doctrine, underlined a number of tools available for U.S. counter proliferation
policy. Perhaps the most controversial is the preventive use of force against
emerging nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons programs. By that time, Iraq
had to struggle for long to revive the nuclear programme after the destruction
of Osiraq facilities. Menachem Begin Doctrine took shape with eight
F16 aircrafts did a pretty good job in little over 90 seconds
without damages or losses to Israel. Bush doctrine took note of the strategy of
Israel in developing the new doctrine of attacking the installations through
minimum attack with limited time operation.
Menachem Begin, the then Prime Minister of Israel, was an
excellent Military strategist of the time, was seemingly a continuation of
Irgun for him. The Israel Defense Force was shaped by Irgun.
He had been closely watching the Nuclear Programmer of Iraq which started
the reactor, almost a gift of the Soviet Union in 1968. The expansion
programme came to limelight after the reports of negotiations with France for
another reactor, probably of gas graphite that would enable production of
minimum for nuclear warheads every year. The negotiations could not succeed,
yet, in 1975 France was in agreement for 70 MW reactor research
purposes, but it was enough for Iraq to talk loud about the Arab Atom Bomb in
the process. Even after Iraq had raised the budget for the nuclear
programme and employed thousands of Scientist and took cues from the Soviets to
evade surveillance, they could not make a bomb even by 1991. The easiness
in the Iraq operation was the success that US could benefit from
razing down of Osiraq,
In 2006, Israel found that Syria had made major headway in
nuclear installations in the remote region of Dier ez Zor. The then Prime
Minister of Israel Ehud Olmert was keeping a watch on what was taking shape
under the cover of Syrian – North Korean Diplomatic relations. Yet there
were reports of disagreements within Israel’s government on the technological
expertise of Syria for such a venture. Finally, during the first quarter of
2007, when the Syrian Atomic Energy chief was in Vienna, Olmert gave orders to
hack their computers. The result was quite convincing on the programme for a
Syrian nuclear facility to the nature of North Korean design. Olmert was
determined to destroy Dier ez Zor plant at any cost. But, Israel was yet to
recover from the 2006 war with Lebanon and was concerned about the adverse
situation of possible escalation into war with Syria. It was feared that
in such a situation, Hezbollah would join Syria and will receive support from
Iran. Olmert had to get clearance from George W Bush, who was facing backlash
over the failures to find any weapons of mass destruction or manufacturing
facilities in the 2003 war with Iraq. Bush kept on delaying the matter,
in the same manner as Joe Biden in the 2024 situation with Iran and Israel. On
07 September 2007, eight F16 aircrafts destroyed Dier ez Zor nuclear facility
almost completely. Syria, a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty had to
hide the reality and issued a statement that its forces repelled an air space
violation by the Israel Air Force. In 2018, Israel had admitted that it
had destroyed the Nuclear Facility of Syria.
At the same time, Iran slipped into an agreement on the
proliferation of nuclear energy, realizing the potential threat from the US and
Israel.
“Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran was established by Shah in
April 1974 during the world energy crisis to develop nuclear power in Iran on a
top Priority basis.” A declassified document of the US State
Administration dating to 15th April 1976 is
narrative of the interests of Shah Government , The document reads “ The
Government of Iran cultivates the impression that its ambitious programme to
produce 23,000 MWe of nuclear power by 1994 is purely intended as an eventual
alternative to thermal and hydeo-elecric power and is no way intended to
serve as base upon which to develop nuclear weapons capability.. Iran has
signed and ratified the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and has accepted
controls of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) over the nuclear installations
and materials within its sovereignty.”
Another unclassified Documents of US defence highlights Shah Md
Rez Phlavi justifying the rights of small countries to arm themselves
with powerful nuclear warheads. Shah later denied any such talks on Iran
longing for nuclear weapons, but was said to have been disappointed in the
failure to acquire eight nuclear reactors. Shah was consistent in his
efforts for a successful nuclear programme and had negotiations with some
European countries as well. India had timed the Nuclear test in such a way that
would deter US from supporting the nuclear programmes of the Middle East
countries and Pakistan. However, Shah was ambitious to make Iran a
SuperPower in the open and he changed his statements on Nuclear weapons quite
frequently. The US became skeptical about the intentions of the Shah leading to
the Iranian monarch inking the Proliferation Treaty.
Intelligence Estimates US in August 1974, now declassified, had
assumed that Israel had already produced Nuclear weapons by then. After
Shah was removed from power in 1979, the new theocentric Government pursued the
nuclear programme. Until the change of power, Iran and Israel had military
cooperation. David Ben Gurion , the Prime Minister of Israel as early as
the 1950s , embarked on closer ties with non- Arab Countries . The Gurion
doctrine of “Periphery Doctrine” perhaps seemed to convince Iran to
recognize Israel. There years before, Iran had vehemently opposed the UN
Security Council motion to divide Palestine into Arab and Jewish
Countries. The decision of Iran was more or less a new alignment
against Soviet design of Pan Arab Nationalism mooted by Abdul Nasser. The
Countries that were opposed to the formation of Israel as a sovereign state had
to come together. Peripheral Doctrine worked well for Israel to wriggle out of
the Isolation, joining hands with Turkey, Ethiopia and Iran. The military
Coup of Iraq in 1968 and rise of the Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party brought
matters to a more conflicting political situation equally for 1srael and Iran.
Israel was already in the political scenario of Iraq in the fight of Kurds
against the Iraqi Regime. Israel-Iran and Turkey had formed a combined
intelligence force to aid Kurds by 1958. The common Trilateral Intelligence
Agency, the Trident paved way for military cooperation and exchanges between
Israel and Iran.
Iraq had become a potential threat for Iran. Shah negotiated
with US for the procurement of arms and Fighter Aircrafts. It is not certain
whether Israel had looked into a probable setback as Iran would become
self-reliant in its defence preparedness. Such a possibility under
consideration of Israel would have created a check on Iran in
venturing into Iran through its deep penetration infrastructure. The design of
Project Flower in 1977 would have been different if it was so. Project
Flower was the Joint programme of Israel and Iran to develop and produce an
advanced missile system, under the agreement of Oil for Arms, almost little
over a billion USD. The Missile Technology development programme of
Israel was in a way funded by Iran! The extent of military cooperation
grew to a larger extent between Iran and Israel even under the Khomeini regime.
The potential threat from Saddam Hussain tightened their Bonds. Saddam Hussain
left no stone unturned to boast about his ambitious nuclear programmes. His old
enemy, a nuclear scientist (was released from Prison and was given a massive
task of rebuilding the Nuclear Power plant.
Prime Minister of Israel Menachem Begin reciprocated well
on the shortfalls in the maintenance of US made Aircrafts that Shah had
procured. Disregarding US interests, the Israeli Prime Minister supplied
to Iran much needed components. The relationships between two countries
became sour after Israel crossed Lebanon borders in 1982. Hezbollah gained
considerably with this Israeli attack and in no time military cooperation
between Iran and Israel ended, with age old hostilities and resurfacing the big
“No to the Jewish State”, that too, after the death of Ayatollah Khomeini. By
the turn of the millennium Israel became more convinced about the potential
threat from Iran. Cooperation with Russian military and nuclear programmes,
Iranian tactical support for Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthi changed the security
perceptions of South West Asia. New frontiers opened with the Russian –Chinese
North Korean axis, prompting Israel to act on Lebanon and Syria with all its
superior intelligence machinery.
The Nuclear Programme of Iran is centered around four of its
facilities with the Atomic Research Station in the capital Teheran, Nuclear
Energy Facilities in Bushher, the Uranium plant of Isfahan and Fordow
along with the Heavy water facilities at Arak. There have been reports that
after a series of mishaps in the nuclear facilities they have tailor made the
centrifugal facilities to such modules that can be dismantled and relocated in
the event of a probable threat.
Israel seemingly was not fully trusting Iran on their Joint
comprehensive Plan of Action –JCPOA of 2015, wherein, Iran conceded to reduce
the size of its nuclear programme. However, this agreement was of some relief
to Saudi Arabia, if not to Israel till 2018. Donald Trump citing failures
in overseeing the Agreement, the US withdrew from JCPOA. Few incidents led
Tehran to reconsider the spirit of the agreement and to enhance
their Uranium enrichment capabilities.
After the black out of the Natanz atomic energy Plant in July
2001, it became open to the world that the Iranian Uranium enrichment plant was
built as an underground facility. However, the country did not reveal anything
about the incident, other than terming it as an act of “nuclear
terrorism”. By then, Iran had lost patience as barely a year ago the
Ishfan plant suffered a big explosion. The plant had locally made centrifuges,
Such explosions had occurred in 2013 and 2014 in the other two nuclear
installations as well. After the 2020 explosion, the Natanz plant was shifted
to more inaccessible hilly terrains as Iran became suspicious about the US-
Israel collaborative “Operation Olympic Games”. This Operation was cited to
have been behind the Stucknex virus that damaged the computers and network
system of Natanz nuclear facilities. Operation Olympic Games was the brainchild
of George W Bush in 2006 to unleash a cyber war against the hostile countries
feeding proxy war against US and its allies.
Tactical issues confront Israel to destroy the nuclear
facilities of Iran. A tough country on the move would have underground micro
modules in populated areas. Iran would go silent even if Israel strikes through
other means. Three earthquakes in a row cannot be ruled out as a probable hit
on the underground facilities or storages.
Pakistan had earlier
on the previous day had threatened to Strike Israel with their nukes, however,
by the evening, they changed their stand .
