Iran Stumbled in the Nuclear Angling of Pakistan?
Will Pakistan play another war game with India to
cover up the dent on US Pride and American interests? Can Pakistan and the Arab
nations convince the Revolutionary Regime of Iran accept American dictum so
easily.
Political and Military heads of Pakistan seem to be in
a hurry to end the Iran War. To accommodate the conventions between the White
House and Islamabad, Benjamin Netanyahu may turn his eyes away for a little
while. Yet, the hectic parleys raise certain doubts on the root cause of the
war pointing to Islamabad. Is it a cover up to clean the footprints before
getting exposed?
Pakistan had rendered Iran every possible support and
stood for the rights of Iran to develop nuclear technology citing civilian
applications. Memories do not fall short when this loud support was announced
in August 2025, during the visit of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian to
Islamabad. Voicing support for the Iranian nuclear programme cannot be seen as
a turn of new events to enhance the trade volume by another 7 billion USD or a
new cooperation covering areas of Science and Technology and other areas.
In the first week of May 2026 the Iranian Foreign
Minister
Seyed Abbas Araghchi led a delegation to Pakistan. Iranian regimes of both
Pahlavi and Revolutionary Governments had always supported Pakistan at time of
war with India. However, some reports were suggestive of Araghchi’s dialogue
with Pakistani leadership to exercise restraint on the relations with India.
Iran is said to have offered more to ensure that relations between Pakistan
with India do not deteriorate. Pakistan is the country that knocks every nook
and corner of the world for recognition as a nuclear power. Soon after the
visit of Araghchi to Islamabad, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on 25th
of May set out for negotiations with Türkiye, Iran, Azerbaijan and Tajikistan.
For the Meeting with
Erdogan, the Pakistan Prime Minister had taken a strong delegation with him
that included Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, Chief of Army Staff Syed Asim Munir
among others. The next day Shehbaz Sharif reached Tehran and met the President of
Iran Masoud Pezeshkian. Again, in the first week of June, Shabaz Sharif visited
Saudi Arabia. A day before the 12 Days War between Israel and Iran broke out on
13th June, Shahbaz Sharif was in UAE holding discussions with the
President Sheikh Mohamed Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan. Could there be a larger political
dimension for the diplomatic networking of Pakistan?
Pakistan has every reason
to worry. They have to do everything to stop a drastic step by the US for a
land attack. Islamabad has concerns over the fiscal regime of the country
dictated by its Military. The political government has no powers to overrule or
stop the military from any of their activities. The Political Government is
only a superfluous mechanism to camouflage the antecedents of the Generals.
Even when some sections of the general public had doubts on its military
for opening up the land route from North Korea to Semnan Territory of
Iran, the political machinery remained tight lipped. A
bilateral trade agreement was in place between Pakistan and Iran by2005.
By the very next year, in 2006, Iran had initiated their space programme. Two
years later, in 2008, the Rangin Kaman – Rainbow project of Nuclear warhead
development was launched at SPND facilities at Garmsar. By then,
extraction and purification of Tritium had been launched in Ivanakiy.
Simultaneously, Iran stepped into the development of Intercontinental
Ballistic Missiles with a range above 3000km. For over Twelve years, technology
and components were said to have been moving through the land route from North
Korea through China and Pakistan,
How strong will the
audacity of Iran be on the military and political leadership of Pakistan in a
political settlement that has quite a lot of intricacies is to be
watched. Israel and the United States may have their own concerns on
such a volatile and intense matter of overweighing international guarantees,
Can such a matter with much top secrets be unwrapped in a politically
unstable, fragile government system like that of Pakistan?
At such a critical time, the statement by the Defence Minister of Pakistan on targeting Kolkata does not fit into the scheme of ongoing negotiations on ending the Iran War. In between, Pakistan sounded another nuclear threat to India. A cloud of insecurity seems to have loomed across the power centres of Pakistan. Former High Commissioner of Pakistan to India, Abdul Basit was more or less confident that the US will not take such a measure to attack their nuclear assets as they have carried out in Iran. He made it clear that, if the US dares so, Pakistan will nuke Mumbai and Delhi. The statement shot out in between the US-Israel operations in Iran, raises a question on why a thought on such a probable cropped up in Pakistan. The world knows that the armory of Pakistan is flooded with deliveries from US, China and Türkiye.
Political and military establishments of Pakistan had
actively shuttled between US, Iran and other Arab Countries prior to the
Operation Rough Rider, which began on the 15th March 2025. The US
seemed to have certain doubts on the Houthis, the Frontal Islamic Force of Iran
in Yemen and their strike capabilities. No doubt, the Pentagon needed to be
calculative in the event of a turnaround, which by all means may inevitably necessitate
a diversion of global attention to another conflict zone.
As a faithful ally, sinking in debts and
liabilities the Pakistani Military and the State plunged into action. Towards
mid-April 2025, Pakistan Military Chief, ostensibly triggered off an offensive
narrative. Asim Munir, revived the hardcore facets of hatred theory that split
India. He had made an open call which in reality was a signal to the terror
operatives in India. Once again, the Jugular Vein
Theory took the central stage 77 years after the death of Mohammed Ali Jinnah,
the mastermind of theocentric partition of India. Also, in the eastern front,
from Bangladesh, the green map of Jinnah on Assam and the Hill Areas
resurfaced. A well-planned design for a heavy confrontation between India
and Pakistan was brewing up. Both the US and Pakistan knew it well that
Narendra Modi Government at New Delhi will not digest any terror attack on
civilians and a loud act of terror would incite backlash. By the 1970s Pakistan
had unleashed a series of campaigns against the Tourism and shooting of Indian
Films in the Vale of Kashmir. If all those facts are put together, the reasons
for the Pahalgam Terror plot would become visible. Pakistan had continuously
spread false propaganda on Tourism as an anti-Muslim and anti-Islamic act and
threat to Kashmiri Muslims. Further, the Pakistani operatives had by the 1980s
penetrated into the Tourism spots. They made severe allegations that the Muslim
guides and attendants were not paid tips if they did not say ‘Namaskar with
folded hands. To anyone who knows this background would not have any
doubts on the direct involvement of Pakistan in the Pahalgam attack, forcing
the Tourists to recite Kalma or face bullets.
Even after two wars, the
Government of India could not dismantle the pro- Pakistan -Jamaat e Islami
apparatus that had made a strong base in Kashmir. By 2010, proliferation of the
infiltrators became undistinguishable as they merged with the population of
Kashmir in certain pockets, and had the second generation in line as Indian
citizens. By the time Qamar Bajwa took over as the army chief. the
infrastructure for terror operations had reached maturity and enough strength
to strike anywhere.
It does not require many
variables to draw an equation on the entire gimmick. Qamar Javed Bajwa
immediately after he took charge as the Chief of Army, he had taken over the
control of trade and commerce of Pakistan. Politically elected Government
became crippled of financial powers and the mainstay of business from retail to
manufacturing segment by and large became a proprietary of the Army. In
every way, the road was clear for Asim Munir to operate catastrophic terror
plots targeting non-Kashmiri Tourists. The ground and for the plot, targeting
the tourists evading the Indian Army, by all means seemed to be aligned with
enough cover for a political orchestration on the security lapses of Narendra
Modi Government. The Political apparatus to counter the Government of India was
expected to freeze New Delhi, to dissuade from any offensive like that of
Balakot air strike of 2019.
Barely two months before
the 12day offensive against Iran, in the middle of Operation Rough Rider
against Houthis in Yemen, on 22 April 2025 Pahalgam terror plot was hatched
out. It rightly coincided with the rough weather the US was facing to take
control over the situations in Yemen. Escalation of India Pakistan war would
reopen US and Türkiye military buildup in the middle east, that would squeeze
Iran and Pakistan would be forced to act from the eastern front. On 6th
of May 2025, Saudi Arabia had brokered a ceasefire between Houthis and the US,
the very next day, on the 7th May India launched a major offensive
against the terrorist hubs of Pakistan.
Entire speculations and
combat equations of Pakistan had gone wrong with the unexpected combat strategy
India adopted. Pakistan was crippled by all means. The US was bound to
salvage the situation by immediately forcing Pakistan to avert further damages
and was successful in creating political turbulence and disturbance in India
with the opposition raising voice on the US Pressure to stop the operation. And
Pakistan was paid back with a hefty IMF loan of 1 billion USD in between the
Operation Sindoor, on 9th May 2005. On 10th may the US
President claimed that he had brokered a Ceasefire between India and Pakistan!
However Indian Political leadership showed maturity by not linking the pay off
as a gratitude to cover up the American Debacle in the Indian Ocean.
However, the question remained on the weapon grade
uranium and the partly enriched Uranium produced by Iran. With more than 500 Kg
of Weapon grade and over a ton of partly purified Uranium stored in the
underground Nuclear Townships, the US will not invite a nuclear disaster by
bombing them. Before the US bombing in June 2025, there were doubts on the
relocation of the radioactive elements to safer destinations. Many agencies had
debated on the movement based on satellite data.
Pakistan had to play a
larger game to create an Islamic battle line against India, bringing all the
Muslim countries in their nuclear and religious tender hooks.
Pakistan boasts as the only nuclear power among the
Islamic countries. Islamic State of Türkiye as a NATO member holds quite a few
nuclear arsenals of the United States. Yet, Erdogan cannot stake claim as a
nuclear power as Ankara is bound by the Treaty and agreements. Pakistan tested
the nuclear agenda as a defence pact after the US struck nuclear assets of Iran
in June 2025. Islamabad shaped a treaty of strategic partnerships of mutual
alliance for intervention by the other in the event of an attack, beginning
with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. To wriggle out of the commitments in the
treaty, in the aftermath of the bombardment of Refining and defence facilities
by Tehran, the immediate option before Shehbaz Sharif, and Asim Munir is to open up a dialogue process.
Treaty of mutual attack became a failure within no
time. Pakistan’s defence Minister shouted at the Ayatollah regime not to touch
the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Iran ignored the noise and targeted two main vital
installations strong enough to inflict economic damage to the Kingdom. Over 20
companies have been shut costing much time and money to the damages so far
made. Riyadh is a strong ally of the United States and had both procurements
and arrangements with the US for Air Defence systems. The damages are too far
reaching. If Mohammed bin Salman takes it as a call, the pretext of the nuclear
umbrella and Long range missile power of Islamabad will come under question.
Saudi Arabia seems to have ignored the bitter experience from Pakistan during the 2015 strike against Houthis in Yemen. Iran forced a warning to all the seven countries in the ongoing aerial combat, the eighth nation Egypt somehow has been spared. Then also, Pakistan backed out of joining or supporting Saudi Arabia in the operations, and the Gulf Cooperation Council seemingly overlooked the impairments. The fear of the possible damages to the Mediterranean coast on the oil trade could not be eliminated. The Shia Groups serving as a second force of Tehran can create a roadblock nearly 30 to 35 % of the Oil trade combining Hormuz with Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The damages of 2023 have not yet been covered and the present wave would change the global energy scenario to an irreparable mode within the second quarter of the century.
The terms laid by the US had
been rejected and the war seems to continue till Iran decides so. Not even a
single Arab nation has raised a finger on Iran, even after suffering severe
economic losses and damages. Pakistan is all out to consolidate the spirit of
Islamic unity into a political solution. Both Erdogan and curtains or Asim
Munir are in the race for holding the central chair of Islamic leadership and
forging a strong Islamic front. It would not be a welcome gesture for the
Americans. Somewhere, a careful manipulation of off the track diplomacy seems
to be making rounds to isolate US and its defence superiority. Iran was central
to this design, caught between Israel and - Lebanon and Yemen Axis with Israel
at the centre on one side, NATO and Ukraine aligned against Russia – China
-Taiwan- North Korea lined up at the other end. It is certain that China,
Russian and North Korea will not let American aspirations on Canada, Cuba and
Greenland to happen so easily like that in Venezuela. It will be the political
need of the Russia- China- North Korea alignment to hold Iran sternly against
the US, even under the worst damages and casualties. Iran will have to
stick to the guns to make the Pentagon rethink on ways to uphold American
Superiority.
Laden with the high
spirits of brokering peace, the Pakistan military establishment will capitalise
the change in the global architecture of defence strategies as their backbone
to mount a heavy attack on India. Pakistan will do everything to make their
first ever negotiations a big success to forge a new Islamic alignment.
In return, do they anticipate a silent signal from the US to test their
nuclear capability on India. Nuclear fever is the symptom of an immature
political system that breeds a let loose army at their will. Moreover,
Pakistan will have to shield itself from the damages made to the US by forcing
a war on Iran, which is a resultant effect of the Nuclear black market and
technology transfer corridor opened between North Korea and Iran. The
trajectory may get exposed if the war is prolonged.
Nuclear fever of Pakistan
reached its peak during the reign of Zia ul Haq. 1n 1987 he initiated the
policy of Islamabad – Tehran cooperation for nuclear technology development
programmes. In 1995 when Pakistan delivered advanced P2 Centrifuges to Iran. It
was a part of the world-wide nuclear black-market Pakistan had launched through
their key Scientist operative AQ Khan. He frequently visited Tehran during 1991
and 1992. Dr Khan could bundle up 3.2 million USD from Iran for the
nuclear programme of Pakistan in exchange of weapons and Technology. Rumours
floated around the streets of Karachi on the secret transfers. Fingers pointed
at the then Pakistan Army Chief Mirza Aslam Beg for arranging the Carrier
Aircraft of PAF for the transfer of equipment and other materials. Much soil
seems to have eroded under the feet of Benazer Bhutto as well. Many times, it
was heard that Mirza Beg had bargained the sale of Nuclear Bombs to Iran to the
tune of 10 billion USD.
Apart from A Q Khan, and his fellow scientist who had
millions of unaccounted US dollars in their accounts, from sources in Iran,
Libya and North Korea. Libya funded Pakistan with 200 million USD. Saddam
Hussain, however, had his own doubts on AQ Khan, suspecting a CIA game to trap
him. Iraq went for a tie up with European countries and avoided the black
market of Pakistan. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is believed to have
invested a substantial volume for the highly priced Islamic Pride. Khans’ son
in law Noman Shah was managing the nuclear racket from UAE. Entire operations
of nuclear and missile transfers were operated through Noman shah.
In 1975, the world was perhaps unaware that this
Bhopal born Pakistan Nuclear Scientist would evade his employer, the Fokker
Vliegtuigen research station of
URENCO Nuclear facility in Nederland with smuggled blue prints of latest
technologies in Uranium enrichment and the details of component manufacturers,
to become the master of Islamic Bomb. Zulfikar Ali Bhutto gave Khan facilities
at Kahuta, independent from the plutonium development project at Multan.
Urenco was a consortium of Germany, UK and Netherlands at that time that
was engaged in the development of Gas Centrifuges for Uranium enrichment. At
the time AQ Khan left the Urenco establishments, two of their chemical
separation plants were on the verge of completion. Perhaps the idea of Urenco
to provide nuclear fuel for other countries was hijacked by AQ Khan, to
centralize the Islamic Nuclear Fuel Hub, that can drastically revive the
economy of the country, five years later, in 1980, Khan could
repeat the same copying from the Chinese Nuclear facility. Iran and
North Korea will be the direct beneficiaries of the illicit technology trade,
Pakistan was bound to open the transit corridor for North Korea -Iran
transfers. Much of the nuclear and the missile technology and components of
Iran had been produced in North Korea. Iran had long range Ballistic missiles
of Sahab Class are known to have North Korean design. By 2015 Pakistan
had developed the Shahin III version with a range of 2700 kms. Speculations
have no room as the preferential Trade Agreement between Pakistan and Iran had
opened the Borders for passage of goods through the China Pakistan Corridor.
Pakistan has to do everything possible to stop the war. Otherwise, it may have
to share the damages incurred to the US for providing a safe channel for North
Korean deliveries to Iran.
