OCTOBER WAR: Made
Together to Hit?
On 05 October 2024 two earthquakes occurred in
Central Iran. The first one was 4.48 M at 8.59 AM at a depth of 6. 2 miles
and the second one of 4.1 strength happened at 1.13 pm at a depth of 9.3
miles.
These two earthquakes led to a host of
speculations on probable nuclear tests carried out by Iran in the
wake of a counter offensive in retaliation for raining Missiles to Israel.
Amidst these high pitched notes on weapon grade nuclear arsenal tests, another
earthquake occurred on 06 October 2024, at 12.45 AM of 4.6 M struck Semnan Region of Iran at a
depth of 6.2 miles. If at all Iran had conducted nuclear tests, it would
be a question on the International assessment on the Nuclear
Programme of Iran. If the seismological station of Norway situated over 3500kms
from the Soviet Nuclear test location in Kazakhstan could pick up a small
explosion of a quarter kiloton, today with thermal radiation mapping
through satellite imaging together with highly sensitive Seismography can be
integrated to detect nuclear tests of any dimension. Better diagnosis can
give a clear picture to differentiate between chemical explosions and
detonations for mining and nuclear explosions. There would be a marked
difference between the wave pattern and travel time of waves in an earthquake
and explosion. The time of signal generation is in the fraction of a
microsecond in a nuclear explosion may be to the scale of 0.0000001 seconds,
whereas the earthquake waves by the friction of plates or rock
formations would be longer to the extent of quite a few seconds or minutes .
Here, a speculation of any kind would have been unnecessary , as the
Iranian nuclear programme was under watch.
The tunnels of Hamas were made open
to the world by Israel in Gaza exposes the capability of Iran to employ the
“Decoupling” method in nuclear tests, more effectively than any other
country. Horizontal drilling at very lower depths forming chambers
to hold test devices could deceive the seismic observatories. The signals would
not be as sharp as that from a vertical well. In such a case,
Iran can have the capability to conduct concealed tests of massive
dimensions to the extent of a few kilotons, without being noticed.
Earthquakes in Iran on 5th and ^th October were reported to have the
same depth of 6.2 miles and almost near magnitudes seismic intensity of little
over 4 M. This can certainly be a reason for speculations on the
probable nuclear test unless it is a repeat of the explosion.
The sounding of nuclear tests by Iran surfaces
amidst apprehensions in the American and European media on the possible
attack by Israel on the Nuclear Installations of Iran. Four decades
back, Israel had proven the capability to strike the nuclear facilities in
Iraq, where Iran could not be successful in their effort . It was
the first ever successful strike against any nuclear installation in the
world. Nuclear reactor at Osiraq in Iraq was hit on 07 June 1981.
Saddam Hussain had been vigorously working on
the Nuclear Programme and achieved much progress by 1980
working in collaboration with Italy and France. Around
the same time the term of US President Jimmy Carter had ended and Ronal Regan
had won the elections. The political change in US administration was
expected to revamp the 1978 Nuclear Nonproliferation Act of Carter.
Osiraq strike was visibly not acceptable to Regan administration
and to make matters worse, Israel had used US made F16 aircrafts for the raid. As
a sign of displeasure, Ronald Reagan Administration suspended further supply
F16 aircrafts to Israel. Netanyahu may not take a calculated diplomatic
conflict with US Administration at this point of time by repeating the past.
It took nearly two decades for the US to come
up with a policy on nuclear proliferation that came to be known as Bush
doctrine of 2002.
National Security Strategy of 2002, also known as the
Bush Doctrine, underlined a number of tools available for U.S. counter
proliferation policy. Perhaps the most controversial is the preventive use of
force against emerging nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons programs. By
that time, Iraq had to struggle for long to revive the nuclear programme after
the destruction of Osiraq facilities. Menachem Begin Doctrine took shape
with eight F16 aircrafts did a pretty good job in little over 90
seconds without damages or losses to Israel. Bush doctrine took note of the
strategy of Israel in developing the new doctrine of attacking the
installations through minimum attack with limited time operation.
Menachem Begin, the then Prime Minister of Israel, was an
excellent Military strategist of the time, was seemingly a continuation of
Irgun for him. The Israel Defence Force was shaped by Irgun.
He had been closely watching the Nuclear Programme of Iraq which started
the reactor, almost a gift of the Soviet Union in 1968. The expansion
programme came to limelight after the reports of negotiations with France for
another reactor, probably of gas graphite that would enable production of
minimum for nuclear warheads every year. The negotiations could not succeed,
yet, in 1975 France was in agreement for 70 MW reactor research
purposes, but it was enough for Iraq to talk loud about the Arab Atom Bomb in
the process. Even after Iraq had raised the budget for the nuclear
programme and employed thousands of Scientist and took cues from the Soviets to
evade surveillance, they could not make a bomb even by 1991. The easiness
in the Iraq operation was the success that US could benefit from
razing down of Osiraq,
In 2006, Israel found that Syria had made major headway in
nuclear installations in the remote region of Dier ez Zor. The then Prime
Minister of Israel Ehud Olmert was keeping a watch on what was taking shape under
the cover of Syrian – North Korean Diplomatic relations. Yet there were
reports of disagreements within Israel’s government on the technological
expertise of Syria for such a venture. Finally, during the first quarter of
2007, when the Syrian Atomic Energy chief was in Vienna, Olmert gave orders to
hack their computers. The result was quite convincing on the programme for a
Syrian nuclear facility to the nature of North Korean design. Olmert was
determined to destroy Dier ez Zor plant at any cost. But, Israel was yet to
recover from the 2006 war with Lebanon and was concerned about the adverse
situation of possible escalation into war with Syria. It was feared that
in such a situation, Hezbollah would join Syria and will receive support from
Iran. Olmert had to get clearance from George W Bush, who was facing backlash
over the failures to find any weapons of mass destruction or manufacturing
facilities in the 2003 war with Iraq. Bush kept on delaying the matter,
in the same manner as Joe Biden in the 2024 situation with Iran and Israel. On
07 September 2007, eight F16 aircrafts destroyed Dier ez Zor nuclear facility
almost completely. Syria, a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty had to
hide the reality and issued a statement that its forces repelled an air space
violation by the Israel Air Force. In 2018, Israel had admitted that it
had destroyed the Nuclear Facility of Syria.
At the same time, Iran slipped into an agreement on the
proliferation of nuclear energy, realizing the potential threat from the US and
Israel.
“Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran was established by Shah
in April 1974 during the world energy crisis to develop nuclear power in Iran
on a top Priority basis.” A declassified document of the US State
Administration dating to 15th April 1976 is
narrative of the interests of Shah Government , The document reads “ The
Government of Iran cultivates the impression that its ambitious programme to
produce 23,000 MWe of nuclear power by 1994 is purely intended as an eventual
alternative to thermal and hydeo-elecric power and is no way intended to
serve as base upon which to develop nuclear weapons capability.. Iran has
signed and ratified the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and has accepted
controls of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) over the nuclear
installations and materials within its sovereignty.”
Another unclassified Documents of US defence highlights Shah
Md Rez Phlavi justifying the rights of small countries to arm themselves
with powerful nuclear warheads. Shah later denied any such talks on Iran
longing for nuclear weapons, but was said to have been disappointed in the
failure to acquire eight nuclear reactors. Shah was consistent in his
efforts for a successful nuclear programme and had negotiations with some
European countries as well. India had timed the Nuclear test in such a way that
would deter US from supporting the nuclear programmes of the Middle East
countries and Pakistan. However, Shah was ambitious to make Iran a
SuperPower in the open and he changed his statements on Nuclear weapons quite
frequently. The US became skeptical about the intentions of the Shah leading to
the Iranian monarch inking the Proliferation Treaty.
Intelligence Estimates US in August 1974, now declassified,
had assumed that Israel had already produced Nuclear weapons by then.
After Shah was removed from power in 1979, the new theocentric Government
pursued the nuclear programme. Until the change of power, Iran and Israel had
military cooperation. David Ben Gurion , the Prime Minister of Israel as
early as the 1950s , embarked on closer ties with non- Arab Countries . The
Gurion doctrine of “Periphery Doctrine” perhaps seemed to convince
Iran to recognize Israel. There years before, Iran had vehemently opposed the
UN Security Council motion to divide Palestine into Arab and Jewish
Countries. The decision of Iran was more or less a new alignment
against Soviet design of Pan Arab Nationalism mooted by Abdul Nasser. The
Countries that were opposed to the formation of Israel as a sovereign state had
to come together. Peripheral Doctrine worked well for Israel to wriggle out of
the Isolation, joining hands with Turkey, Ethiopia and Iran. The military
Coup of Iraq in 1968 and rise of the Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party brought matters
to a more conflicting political situation equally for 1srael and Iran. Israel
was already in the political scenario of Iraq in the fight of Kurds against the
Iraqi Regime. Israel-Iran and Turkey had formed a combined intelligence
force to aid Kurds by 1958. The common Trilateral Intelligence Agency, the
Trident paved way for military cooperation and exchanges between Israel and
Iran.
Iraq had become a potential threat for Iran. Shah negotiated
with US for the procurement of arms and Fighter Aircrafts. It is not certain
whether Israel had looked into a probable setback as Iran would become
self-reliant in its defence preparedness. Such a possibility under
consideration of Israel would have created a check on Iran in
venturing into Iran through its deep penetration infrastructure. The design of
Project Flower in 1977 would have been different if it was so. Project
Flower was the Joint programme of Israel and Iran to develop and produce an
advanced missile system, under the agreement of Oil for Arms, almost little
over a billion USD. The Missile Technology development programme of
Israel was in a way funded by Iran! The extent of military cooperation
grew to a larger extent between Iran and Israel even under the Khomeini regime.
The potential threat from Saddam Hussain tightened their Bonds. Saddam Hussain
left no stone unturned to boast about his ambitious nuclear programmes. His old
enemy, a nuclear scientist (was released from Prison and was given a massive
task of rebuilding the Nuclear Power plant.
Prime Minister of Israel Menachem Begin reciprocated
well on the shortfalls in the maintenance of US made Aircrafts that Shah had
procured. Disregarding US interests, the Israeli Prime Minister supplied
to Iran much needed components. The relationships between two countries
became sour after Israel crossed Lebanon borders in 1982. Hezbollah gained
considerably with this Israeli attack and in no time military cooperation
between Iran and Israel ended, with age old hostilities and resurfacing the big
“No to the Jewish State”, that too, after the death of Ayatollah Khomeini. By
the turn of the millennium Israel became more convinced about the potential
threat from Iran. Cooperation with Russian military and nuclear programmes,
Iranian tactical support for Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthi changed the security
perceptions of South West Asia. New frontiers opened with the Russian –Chinese
North Korean axis, prompting Israel to act on Lebanon and Syria with all its
superior intelligence machinery.
The Nuclear Programme of Iran is centered around four of its
facilities with the Atomic Research Station in the capital Teheran, Nuclear
Energy Facilities in Bushher, the Uranium plant of Isfahan and Fordow
along with the Heavy water facilities at Arak. There have been reports that
after a series of mishaps in the nuclear facilities they have tailor made the
centrifugal facilities to such modules that can be dismantled and relocated in
the event of a probable threat.
Israel seemingly was not fully trusting Iran on their Joint
comprehensive Plan of Action –JCPOA of 2015, wherein, Iran conceded to reduce
the size of its nuclear programme. However, this agreement was of some relief
to Saudi Arabia, if not to Israel till 2018. Donald Trump citing failures
in overseeing the Agreement, the US withdrew from JCPOA. Few incidents led
Tehran to reconsider the spirit of the agreement and to enhance
their Uranium enrichment capabilities.
After the black out of the Natanz atomic energy Plant in
July 2001, it became open to the world that the Iranian Uranium enrichment
plant was built as an underground facility. However, the country did not reveal
anything about the incident, other than terming it as an act of “nuclear
terrorism”. By then, Iran had lost patience as barely a year ago the
Ishfan plant suffered a big explosion. The plant had locally made centrifuges,
Such explosions had occurred in 2013 and 2014 in the other two nuclear
installations as well. After the 2020 explosion, the Natanz plant was shifted
to more inaccessible hilly terrains as Iran became suspicious about the US-
Israel collaborative “Operation Olympic Games”. This Operation was cited to
have been behind the Stucknex virus that damaged the computers and network
system of Natanz nuclear facilities. Operation Olympic Games was the brainchild
of George W Bush in 2006 to unleash a cyber war against the hostile countries
feeding proxy war against US and its allies.
Tactical issues confront Israel to destroy the nuclear
facilities of Iran. A tough country on the move would have underground micro
modules in populated areas. Iran would go silent even if Israel strikes through
other means. Three earthquakes in a row cannot be ruled out as a probable hit
on the underground facilities or storages.
