OCTOBER WAR

OCTOBER WAR:  Made Together to Hit?

On 05 October 2024 two earthquakes occurred in Central Iran. The first one was 4.48 M at 8.59 AM at a depth of 6. 2 miles and the second one of 4.1 strength happened at 1.13 pm at a depth of 9.3 miles.

These two earthquakes led to a host of speculations on   probable nuclear tests carried out by Iran in the wake of a counter offensive in retaliation for raining Missiles to Israel. Amidst these high pitched notes on weapon grade nuclear arsenal tests, another earthquake occurred on 06 October 2024, at 12.45 AM  of 4.6 M struck Semnan Region of Iran at a depth of 6.2 miles.  If at all Iran had conducted nuclear tests, it would be a question on the   International assessment on the Nuclear Programme of Iran. If the seismological station of Norway situated over 3500kms from the Soviet Nuclear test location in Kazakhstan could pick up a small explosion of a quarter kiloton, today with thermal radiation mapping through satellite imaging together with highly sensitive Seismography can be integrated to detect nuclear tests of any dimension. Better diagnosis can give a clear picture  to differentiate between chemical explosions and detonations for mining and nuclear explosions. There would be a marked difference between the wave pattern and travel time of waves in an earthquake and explosion. The time of signal generation is in the fraction of a microsecond in a nuclear explosion may be to the scale of 0.0000001 seconds, whereas the earthquake waves by the friction of plates or   rock formations would be longer to the extent of quite a few seconds or minutes .  Here, a speculation of any kind would have been unnecessary , as the Iranian nuclear programme was under watch.  

 The tunnels of Hamas were made open to the world by Israel in Gaza exposes the capability of Iran to employ the “Decoupling” method in nuclear tests, more effectively than any other country.  Horizontal drilling at very lower depths forming chambers to hold test devices could deceive the seismic observatories. The signals would not be as sharp as that from a vertical   well.  In such a case, Iran can have the capability to conduct concealed tests of massive dimensions to the extent of a few kilotons, without being noticed.  Earthquakes in Iran on 5^th and ^th October were reported to have the same depth of 6.2 miles and almost near magnitudes seismic intensity of little over 4 M. This  can certainly  be a reason for speculations on the probable nuclear test unless it is a repeat of the explosion.

The sounding of nuclear tests by Iran surfaces amidst apprehensions in the American and European media on  the possible  attack by Israel on the Nuclear Installations of Iran.  Four decades back, Israel had proven the capability to strike the nuclear facilities in Iraq, where Iran could not be successful in their effort .   It was the first ever successful strike against any nuclear installation in the world.  Nuclear reactor at Osiraq in Iraq was hit on 07 June 1981.

Saddam Hussain had been vigorously working on the Nuclear Programme and achieved much progress by 1980 working    in collaboration with Italy and France.  Around the same time the term of US President Jimmy Carter had ended and Ronal Regan had won the elections.  The political change in US administration was expected to revamp the 1978 Nuclear Nonproliferation Act of Carter.  Osiraq strike   was visibly not acceptable to Regan administration and to make matters worse, Israel had used US made F16 aircrafts for the raid. As a sign of displeasure, Ronald Reagan Administration suspended further supply F16 aircrafts to Israel.  Netanyahu may not take a calculated diplomatic conflict with US Administration at this point of time by repeating the past.

It took nearly two decades for the US to come up with a policy on nuclear proliferation that came to be known as Bush doctrine of 2002.

 National Security Strategy of 2002, also known as the Bush Doctrine, underlined a number of tools available for U.S. counter proliferation policy. Perhaps the most controversial is the preventive use of force against emerging nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons programs. By that time, Iraq had to struggle for long to revive the nuclear programme after the destruction of Osiraq facilities.  Menachem Begin Doctrine took shape with eight   F16 aircrafts did a pretty good job in little over 90 seconds without damages or losses to Israel. Bush doctrine took note of the strategy of Israel in developing the new doctrine of attacking the installations through minimum attack with limited time operation.

Menachem Begin, the then Prime Minister of Israel, was an excellent Military strategist of the time, was seemingly a continuation of Irgun for him.   The Israel Defence Force was shaped by Irgun.  He had been closely watching the Nuclear Programme of Iraq which started the reactor, almost a gift of the Soviet Union in 1968.  The expansion programme came to limelight after the reports of negotiations with France for another reactor, probably of gas graphite that would enable production of minimum for nuclear warheads every year. The negotiations could not succeed, yet, in 1975 France was in agreement   for 70 MW reactor research purposes, but it was enough for Iraq to talk loud about the Arab Atom Bomb in the process.  Even after Iraq had raised the budget for the nuclear programme and employed thousands of Scientist and took cues from the Soviets to evade surveillance, they could not make a bomb even by 1991.  The easiness in the Iraq operation was the success that   US could benefit from razing down of Osiraq,

In 2006, Israel found that Syria had made major headway in nuclear installations in the remote region of Dier ez Zor.  The then Prime Minister of Israel Ehud Olmert was keeping a watch on what was taking shape under the cover of Syrian – North Korean Diplomatic relations.  Yet there were reports of disagreements within Israel’s government on the technological expertise of Syria for such a venture. Finally, during the first quarter of 2007, when the Syrian Atomic Energy chief was in Vienna, Olmert gave orders to hack their computers. The result was quite convincing on the programme for a Syrian nuclear facility to the nature of  North Korean design. Olmert was determined to destroy Dier ez Zor plant at any cost. But, Israel was yet to recover from the 2006 war with Lebanon and was concerned about the adverse situation of possible escalation into war with Syria. It was feared that  in such a situation, Hezbollah would join Syria and will receive support from Iran. Olmert had to get clearance from George W Bush, who was facing backlash over the failures to find any weapons of mass destruction or manufacturing facilities in the 2003 war with Iraq.  Bush kept on delaying the matter, in the same manner as Joe Biden in the 2024 situation with Iran and Israel. On 07 September 2007, eight F16 aircrafts destroyed Dier ez Zor nuclear facility almost completely. Syria, a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty had to hide the reality and issued a statement that its forces repelled an air space violation by the Israel Air Force.  In 2018, Israel had admitted that it had destroyed the Nuclear Facility of Syria.

At the same time, Iran slipped into an agreement on the proliferation of nuclear energy, realizing the potential threat from the US and Israel.

 

“Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran was established by Shah in April 1974 during the world energy crisis to develop nuclear power in Iran on a top Priority basis.” A declassified document of  the US State Administration  dating to 15^th April 1976   is narrative of the interests of Shah Government ,  The document reads “ The Government of Iran cultivates the impression that its ambitious programme to produce 23,000 MWe of nuclear power by 1994 is purely intended as an eventual alternative to thermal and  hydeo-elecric power and is no way intended to serve as base upon which to develop nuclear weapons capability.. Iran has signed and ratified the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and has accepted controls of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) over the nuclear installations and materials within its sovereignty.”

Another unclassified Documents of US defence highlights Shah Md Rez Phlavi  justifying the rights of small countries to arm themselves with powerful nuclear warheads.  Shah later denied any such talks on Iran longing for nuclear weapons, but was said to have been disappointed in the failure to acquire eight nuclear reactors.  Shah was consistent in his efforts for a successful nuclear programme and had negotiations with some European countries as well. India had timed the Nuclear test in such a way that would deter US from supporting the nuclear programmes of the Middle East countries and Pakistan.  However, Shah was ambitious to make Iran a SuperPower in the open and he changed his statements on Nuclear weapons quite frequently. The US became skeptical about the intentions of the Shah leading to the Iranian monarch inking the Proliferation Treaty. 

Intelligence Estimates US in August 1974, now declassified, had assumed that Israel had already produced Nuclear weapons by then.  After Shah was removed from power in 1979, the new theocentric Government pursued the nuclear programme. Until the change of power, Iran and Israel had military cooperation.  David Ben Gurion , the Prime Minister of Israel as early as the 1950s , embarked on closer ties with non- Arab Countries . The Gurion doctrine of   “Periphery Doctrine” perhaps seemed to convince Iran to recognize Israel. There years before, Iran had vehemently opposed the UN Security Council motion to divide Palestine into Arab and Jewish Countries.   The decision of Iran was more or less a new alignment against Soviet design of Pan Arab Nationalism mooted by Abdul Nasser.  The Countries that were opposed to the formation of Israel as a sovereign state had to come together. Peripheral Doctrine worked well for Israel to wriggle out of the Isolation, joining hands with Turkey, Ethiopia and Iran.  The military Coup of Iraq in 1968 and rise of the Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party brought matters to a more conflicting political situation equally for 1srael and Iran. Israel was already in the political scenario of Iraq in the fight of Kurds against the Iraqi Regime.  Israel-Iran and Turkey had formed a combined intelligence force to aid Kurds by 1958. The common Trilateral Intelligence Agency, the Trident paved way for military cooperation and exchanges between Israel and Iran.

Iraq had become a potential threat for Iran. Shah negotiated with US for the procurement of arms and Fighter Aircrafts. It is not certain whether Israel had looked into a probable setback as Iran would become self-reliant in its defence preparedness. Such a possibility under consideration of Israel would have   created a check on Iran in venturing into Iran through its deep penetration infrastructure. The design of Project Flower in 1977 would have been different if it was so.  Project Flower was the Joint programme of Israel and Iran to develop and produce an advanced missile system, under the agreement of Oil for Arms, almost little over a billion USD.  The Missile Technology development programme of Israel was in a way funded by Iran!  The extent of military cooperation grew to a larger extent between Iran and Israel even under the Khomeini regime. The potential threat from Saddam Hussain tightened their Bonds. Saddam Hussain left no stone unturned to boast about his ambitious nuclear programmes. His old enemy, a nuclear scientist (was released from Prison and was given a massive task of rebuilding the Nuclear Power plant.

 Prime Minister of Israel Menachem Begin reciprocated well on the shortfalls in the maintenance of US made Aircrafts that Shah had procured.  Disregarding US interests, the Israeli Prime Minister supplied to Iran much needed components.  The relationships between two countries became sour after Israel crossed Lebanon borders in 1982. Hezbollah gained considerably with this Israeli attack and in no time military cooperation between Iran and Israel ended, with age old hostilities and resurfacing the big “No to the Jewish State”, that too, after the death of Ayatollah Khomeini. By the turn of the millennium Israel became more convinced about the potential threat from Iran. Cooperation with Russian military and nuclear programmes, Iranian tactical support for Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthi changed the security perceptions of South West Asia. New frontiers opened with the Russian –Chinese North Korean axis, prompting Israel to act on Lebanon and Syria with all its superior intelligence machinery. 

The Nuclear Programme of Iran is centered around four of its facilities with the Atomic Research Station in the capital Teheran, Nuclear Energy Facilities in Bushher, the Uranium  plant of Isfahan and Fordow along with the Heavy water facilities at Arak. There have been reports that after a series of mishaps in the nuclear facilities they have tailor made the centrifugal facilities to such modules that can be dismantled and relocated in the event of a probable threat.

Israel seemingly was not fully trusting Iran on their Joint comprehensive Plan of Action –JCPOA of 2015, wherein, Iran conceded to reduce the size of its nuclear programme. However, this agreement was of some relief to Saudi Arabia, if not to Israel till 2018.  Donald Trump citing failures in overseeing the Agreement, the US withdrew from JCPOA. Few incidents led Tehran to reconsider the spirit of the agreement and   to enhance their Uranium enrichment capabilities. 

After the black out of the Natanz atomic energy Plant in July 2001, it became open to the world that the Iranian Uranium enrichment plant was built as an underground facility. However, the country did not reveal anything about the incident, other than terming it as an act of “nuclear terrorism”.  By then, Iran had lost patience as barely a year ago the Ishfan plant suffered a big explosion. The plant had locally made centrifuges, Such explosions had occurred in 2013 and 2014 in the other two nuclear installations as well. After the 2020 explosion, the Natanz plant was shifted to more inaccessible hilly terrains as Iran became suspicious about the US- Israel collaborative “Operation Olympic Games”. This Operation was cited to have been behind the Stucknex virus that damaged the computers and network system of Natanz nuclear facilities. Operation Olympic Games was the brainchild of George W Bush in 2006 to unleash a cyber war against the hostile countries feeding proxy war against US and its allies.

Tactical issues confront Israel to destroy the nuclear facilities of Iran. A tough country on the move would have underground micro modules in populated areas. Iran would go silent even if Israel strikes through other means. Three earthquakes in a row cannot be ruled out as a probable hit on the underground facilities or storages.