DISASTER WAITING IN THE HIMALAYAN REGION - 2023 Note

"While overflying the Eastern Himalayas, around October 2022, noticed a change in the glaciers. Due heavy rains the eastern Himalayas by then had a heavy snow cap that would be further intensified in the winters".- I said on 6th January 2023, in my Face Book Page. Nepalwas not included as it is not ethically right to cast any prognosis of Calamity in anothe Country. 6 January 2023 SIKKIM : Unpredictable: Precipitation during October- November of 2022 seemingly has led to heavy snow deposits in the Glaciers of the Himalayas. By February 2023, snow slides to lower basins , would have led to unprecedented reservoir formations. What climatologists have to say may be a different story. The monsoons are likely to be intense in the sub Himalayan region and tropics. Resultant effect of thermal consolidation would lead to cyclonic conditions in the Indian Ocean. Behaviour of Hindukush Mountain Ranges would complement in the process. Major five glaciers of Karakoram ranges may have the story to tell. This could have been a warning bell for the onset of Autumn of 2023. July August could be adverse climatic conditions, may be identical to 2018. While overflying the Eastern Himalayas, around October 2022, noticed a change in the glaciers. Due heavy rains the eastern Himalayas by then had a heavy snow cap that would be further intensified in the winters. The condition of rains in the Himalayan region between 2023- 2026 would be unpredictable, with a series of cloud bursts and precipitation of snow and ice, would add to the high risk of abnormal thermal changes. There was much fear. Having lived in the Eastern Himalayan down streams of Arunachal Pradesh and been to Sikkim , it was a potential fear of a holocaust. In Sikkim itself, Saket Dubey and MK Goyal (2020) had indicated about the potential Flood Hazard from Glacial Lake Out bursts. Sikkim has 17 glacial lakes that would pose high risk. Dubey and Goyal had identified 23 very high risk lakes out of 50 high-risk lakes. Shakho Cho and Khangchung Tso of Sikkim was also studies for the GLOF triggering mechanisms. Disaster management has to be continuously working on the probable and potential threats to public life, on weaker and sick structures, hazardous materials and erections, revalidate environmental clearances, constantly monitor the resources and their abuses, standards of exploration, prospecting mining, standards implemented in town planning and urban infrastructure and facilities, tie up with Central Insecticides Board on Hazardous Chemicals, review their licenses and work out antidotes on an Industrial hazard, frequently evaluate occupational Hazards, ensure that rain gauges of water reserves are working, tie up with Meteorological centres and Central Water commission on the Dams and reservoir levels and its pre monsoon water levels in Dams and a lot more. As early as 1962, CPWD had conducted a survey in NEFA on the potentials of Hydel Power. Brahma Putra and its tributaries can produce 45000 MW power and the report was suggestive of Micro Hydel projects. At that time Sikkim was under Chogyal Regime. Sikkim is blessed with the third highest mountain peak in the world- Khangchendzonga and other peaks Mt.Narsing, Pandim, Sinolchu, , Kabru,, Simvo, along with Zemu glacier. There are numerous glaciers that account for the snow melt that accounts for the snow melt and feeder lines of Teesta River System. Teesta River s takes its origin from the lake Chholamu at altitude over 6000 MSL and passes through the cold desert of Chho Lhamu, Lachen valley and joins Lachung chu at Chungthang . It merges with another river Namprikdang Dzongu forming a confluence of Teesta Kanka Khola and reaches the Teesta Stage V Dam. The catchment area of the dam is over 4300 Sq.Km. The National Hydel Power Corporation had identified Nine sub water sheds in the upper catchment and Three sub sheds encompassing nearly 13 villages. When the six stages of the Hydroelectric Power Project is completed, is expected to generate 3775 MW power. The catchment area is noted for new soil formations as with the other fragile zones of the eastern Himalayas with varying levels of silty and loamy moisture laden conditions. In August 2016, a massive landslide created a dam about 150ft wide, above the Project V of NHPCs Teesta Lower Dam Project in Kanka River. The landslide had occurred at Dzongu was massive posing threat to Dikchu and other villages leading to the shutdown of the Project operations. Further, in June 2020, a major landslide occurred in Dikchu at the Teesta V dam top. This time, access to Dam control Room was cut off along with electric connections. August 2016 landslide was massive and the Kanka River was rendered totally dry. The flow was arrested by the massive blockage formed at Mentam Village as the hill lock of So Bhir slided down . The massive heap of boulders and soil was as much 50 meters in height and over 40 meters along . Now, the warning is clear. Teesta Valley has to be at vigil. The most peaceful place in India, Dzongu cannot assume proportions of a massive disaster in the offing. In 1958 Chogyal had made the area as a reserve of the Lepchas and is a restricted area for outsiders. Lepchas are mostly following shamanism though some have embraced Buddhism and Christianity. In 1994 when the government was on its plan to construct 26 hydroelectric projects, the small state had started showing signs of fear that culminated into protests. Like Narmada Bachao Andolan and anti Posco Movement or Nadigram, the anti dam movement in Sikkim did not make any headlines in the national media. Sikkkim had not been admitted to the North Eastern Council then. The protest against dams sparked off due to religious reasons. The Buddhist Lamas mostly from Bhutia Community went against the construction of three dams on Rathong Chu River. The River is considered as holy for the Buddhists here and of Bhutan and Nepal, who converge here for the age old rituals of Bhumchu. , Most important ritual is the distribution of water from the River Rathong Chu. The monks demanded that the sanctity of the river should be maintained and over 500 lamas – the Buddhist Monks marched to the state capital of Gangtok. This was the major protest in Sikkim after the democratic movement of 1975. The state government appointed a commission chaired by PS Ramakrishnan . Based on the recommendation of the commission the two hydel projects -Ting Ting and Lathanng were scrapped off. In 2004, again, a wave of protests took off against the NHPCs projects, based on the contention that dam construction is not technically feasible in the Dzongu region. This region is prone to frequent landslides and earth quakes. The Government did not sit idle and organized house to house campaigns and Pro Dam Public Movement. In 2009, the government finally decided to negotiate with the agitating Action Committee . The State Government agreed to withdraw four Hydroelectric Dam projects totalling 384MW generation in Dzongu and another four more. On 03 October 2023, an earthquake of M 5.7 had occurred in the region. Earthquake induced slope failure is the most commonly counted factor of landslides. A similar situation arose while in September 2011 an earthquake of M 6.9 had occurred in Sikkim that caused landslides in Singtam and Mangan areas. To have an understanding on the Thermal induction of thrust folds of the Himalayan and sub Himalayan formations , methodologies are yet to be developed. Brahmaputra basin of Assam annually accounts for over 60 to 70 minor Earthquakes. ( made little corrections in spellings of the Original Post.