DISASTROUS MANAGEMENT Whenever natural calamities end with massive destruction anywhere in the world, most of the Governments immediately come forward with their concerns and compete in sending and humanitarian missions. The reality is that if these countries had invested even 10% of their defence expenditure and costs of war for human safety, casualties from natural calamities would have been marginalised, if not totally avoided. We have developed technologies to identify and mark areas vulnerable to calamities, give advance warnings with evacuation plans . Mostly evacuations are done only after calamities occur, on a war footing with improper planning and management. Can the nations take adequate measures to mitigate the damages and casualties in possible cases of natural calamities? From the lessons of the worst Industrial catastrophe, it was always the consideration for effective means of Disaster Management, which would look into every aspect of human interventions including technological invasions on nature. One can only give pointers, it may happen or not, but, care and caution is a step for the governments to take. It cannot be said that no one in the government had seen and read, but they ignore as the Personnel in Service know what is the best for the country. And how best are those know the best- the people come to know, when natural calamities and manmade disasters take a toll. Here are some of my pointers in the Personal Forums: 29th April 2013 NOT TO BE LIKED, BUT TO LEARN... We, the humans of in the 21st century have mutated into a highly specialised breed, who refuse to learn from disasters. It is obvious that a large number of casualties were resulted from the ignorance of the people on the destructive course of rivers glaciers Till 1960s and 70s, schooling taught us to understand the river as the drainage systems of mountains and snow melt of glaciers. It seems that the post seventies basic education methodologies seem to have forgotten to inculcate the same sense, and the political and administrative system seems to be more or less ignorant or least bothered , leading to large scale catastrophes and human casualties. These catastrophes cannot be accounted merely for the snow melt, avalanches, glacier slides or cloud burst. High intensity rain of cloud waves, are not a new phenomenon, which is to be understood from the architecture of the Kedarnath . Atheists and Physicists may take it as a wonderful joke. Primitive Indians were the founders and architects of non-invasive methods of living with nature and taming the nature. Now these aspects can be corelated to various streams of science and Technology. They were against the use of gadgets and methodologies that would create impairments to the wave dynamics and other radiance of the earth. So, they developed human faculties with extracranial perceptions of the entire trajectory of materials. Such grades of faculties were termed as Muni, Rishi, Maha Rishi and Brahma Rishis. The basic of every stair towards the graduation was the inculcation and infusing of YoGic intelligence. They had the basic knowledge to identify the places that have geo magnetic or centres that have synchronization with the interstellar wave systems synchronised with earth. Such regions were identified to keep it out of the human habitation. Till the Islamic and British Invasions and conquests and suppressions, human habitations were at a specified distance from these marked areas. These marked areas also included vulnerable areas in the fragile soil conditions of the Himalayas, Vindhya, Satpura, Aravalli and the Western Ghats. Whereas Himalayas are concerned , Snow Melt studies with satellite data are more than two decades. And how many states have effectively put to use these data for the forecast of water management is not certain. Our Planning is yet to position the scientific data for Planning and administrative measures on a day today basis? Natural disasters occur especially during the Monsoons. Every year, rains will have unusual patterns and not in the control of Meteorologists . Neither the government can issue advisory on the possibilities natural calamities 26 June 2013 There are many regions in India where flash floods occur. Cloud bursts is a characteristic seen in many mountain ranges. We do not have the right picture because most of our scientific studies on environment are conducted by people who do it as part of their job or for research studies as a part of their academic pursuits. The governments need a basic understanding biotic and abiotic parameters that account for unpredictable behaviour of the mountains. Few years back when two Jaguar Air-crafts went missing, IAF made a statement in the same line, that the mountain makes their own climate. All these considerations arise from the vacuum created by our meteorologists and environmentalists. They dictate scientific terms theories and prompt make laws that are thrust on the common man who have been living through all these turbulences of time kept his territories intact. Uttarakhand Cloud bursts or the Glaciation in the Kedar Dome cannot be taken as a new phenomenon. and cannot be. Even if ISRO had predicted on a Glacial discharge, it could not have made any head way or could not have contained the situation. With time s degenerated mindset of to capitalise even beliefs and faiths led to consolidation of population in areas vulnerable natural disasters. Our Civil administration becomes reduced to a BIG QUESTION MARK haunting our peace, security and life at the time of a crisis. Army reacts and can perform, as they are not paid for it. It is their commitment to the Nation; they will do it. casualties or injuries do not deter them; they always move forward. They know where the resources are located , the fastest means to mobilize them and move forward. For the civil administration, everything lies frozen in the files and records, and have to wait for decisions and clearances. It reminds of the cold reaction of the Security forces of Pakistan standing inert on the plight of the people in a disastrous earthquake that ravaged PoK. Even when people cried for help under the debris, the security forces did not move an inch, when asked, the reply was " we have no orders. What we are experiencing today is the tragedy emerging from the priorities of our political system basking in corruption and celebrating every crime or calamity as a Golden Opportunity. 6 January 2023 SIKKIM : Unpredictable: Precipitation during October- November of 2022 seemingly has led to heavy snow deposits in the Glaciers of the Himalayas. By February 2023, snow slides to lower basins , would have led to unprecedented reservoir formations. What climatologists have to say may be a different story. The monsoons are likely to be intense in the sub Himalayan region and tropics. Resultant effect of thermal consolidation would lead to cyclonic conditions in the Indian Ocean. Behaviour of Hindukush Mountain Ranges would complement in the process. Major five glaciers of Karakoram ranges may have the story to tell. This could have been a warning bell for the onset of Autumn of 2023. July August could be adverse climatic conditions, may be identical to 2018. While overflying the Eastern Himalayas, around October 2022, noticed a change in the glaciers. Due heavy rains the eastern Himalayas by then had a heavy snow cap that would be further intensified in the winters. The condition of rains in the Himalayan region between 2023- 2026 would be unpredictable, with a series of cloud bursts and precipitation of snow and ice, would add to the high risk of abnormal thermal changes. There was much fear. Having lived in the eastern Himalayan down streams of Arunachal Pradesh and been to Sikkim , it was a potential fear of a holocaust. In Sikkim itself, Saket Dubey and MK Goyal (2020) had indicated about the potential Flood Hazard from Glacial Lake Out bursts. Sikkim has 17 glacial lakes that would pose high risk. Dubey and Goyal had identified 23 very high risk lakes out of 50 high-risk lakes. Shakho Cho and Khangchung Tso of Sikkim was also studies for the GLOF triggering mechanisms. Disaster management has to be continuously working on the probable and potential threats to public life, on weaker and sick structures, hazardous materials and erections, revalidate environmental clearances, constantly monitor the resources and their abuses, standards of exploration, prospecting mining, standards implemented in town planning and urban infrastructure and facilities, tie up with Central Insecticides Board on Hazardous Chemicals, review their licenses and work out antidotes on an Industrial hazard, frequently evaluate occupational Hazards, ensure that rain gauges of water reserves are working, tie up with Meteorological centres and Central Water commission on the Dams and reservoir levels and its pre monsoon water levels in Dams and a lot more. As early as 1962, CPWD had conducted a survey in NEFA on the potentials of Hydel Power. Brahma Putra and its tributaries can produce 45000 MW power and the report was suggestive of Micro Hydel projects. At that time Sikkim was under Chogyal Regime. Sikkim is blessed with the third highest mountain peak in the world- Khangchendzonga and other peaks Mt. Narsing, Pandim, Sinolchu, , Kabru, Simvo, along with Zemu glacier. There are numerous glaciers that account for the snow melt that accounts for the snow melt and feeder lines of Teesta River System. Teesta River s takes its origin from the lake Chholamu at altitude over 6000 MSL and passes through the cold desert of Chho Lhamu, Lachen valley and joins Lachung chu at Chungthang . It merges with another river Namprikdang Dzongu forming a confluence of Teesta Kanka Khola and reaches the Teesta Stage V Dam. The catchment area of the dam is over 4300 Sq.Km. The National Hydel Power Corporation had identified Nine sub water sheds in the upper catchment and Three sub sheds encompassing nearly 13 villages. When the six stages of the Hydroelectric Power Project is completed, is expected to generate 3775 MW power. The catchment area is noted for new soil formations as with the other fragile zones of the eastern Himalayas with varying levels of silty and loamy moisture laden conditions. In August 2016, a massive landslide created a dam about 150ft wide, above the Project V of NHPCs Teesta Lower Dam Project in Kanka River. The landslide had occurred at Dzongu was massive posing threat to Dikchu and other villages leading to the shutdown of the Project operations. Further, in June 2020, a major landslide occurred in Dikchu at the Teesta V dam top. This time, access to Dam control Room was cut off along with electric connections. August 2016 landslide was massive and the Kanka River was rendered totally dry. The flow was arrested by the massive blockage formed at Mentam Village as the hill lock of So Bhir slided down . The massive heap of boulders and soil was as much 50 meters in height and over 40 meters along . Now, the warning is clear. Teesta Valley has to be at vigil. The most peaceful place in India, Dzongu cannot assume proportions of a massive disaster in the offing. In 1958 Chogyal had made the area as a reserve of the Lepchas and is a restricted area for outsiders. Lepchas are mostly following shamanism though some have embraced Buddhism and Christianity. In 1994 when the government was on its plan to construct 26 hydroelectric projects, the small state had started showing signs of fear that culminated into protests. Like Narmada Bachao Andolan and anti Posco Movement or Nandigram, the anti-dam movement in Sikkim did not make any headlines in the national media. Sikkim had not been admitted to the North Eastern Council then. The protest against dams sparked off due to religious reasons. The Buddhist Lamas mostly from Bhutia Community went against the construction of three dams on Rathong Chu River. The river is considered as holy for the Buddhists here and of Bhutan and Nepal, who converge here for the age old rituals of Bhumchu. Most important ritual is the distribution of water from the River Rathong Chu. The monks demanded that the sanctity of the river should be maintained and over 500 lamas – the Buddhist Monks marched to the state capital of Gangtok. This was the major protest in Sikkim after the democratic movement of 1975. The state government appointed a commission chaired by PS Ramakrishnan . Based on the recommendation of the commission the two hydel projects -Ting Ting and Lethanng were scrapped off. In 2004, again, a wave of protests took off against the NHPCs projects, based on the contention that dam construction is not technically feasible in the Dzongu region. This region is prone to frequent landslides and earth quakes. The Government did not sit idle and organized house to house campaigns and Pro Dam Public Movement. In 2009, the government finally decided to negotiate with the agitating Action Committee . The State Government agreed to withdraw four Hydroelectric Dam projects totalling 384MW generation in Dzongu and another four more. On 03 October 2023, an earthquake of M 5.7 had occurred in the region. Earthquake induced slope failure is the most commonly counted factor of landslides. A similar situation arose while in September 2011 an earthquake of M 6.9 had occurred in Sikkim that caused landslides in Singtam and Mangan areas. To have an understanding on the Thermal induction of thrust folds of the Himalayan and sub Himalayan formations , methodologies are yet to be developed. Brahmaputra basin of Assam annually accounts for over 60 to 70 minor Earthquakes. 1st April 2024 Snow Slide: Foothills of the Eastern Himalayas received heavy precipitation on Sunday, towards the end of March . Himalayan belt , unusually fell in between two pressure zones from the Indian and Chinese plains . As the winter recedes by the mid-March, Himalayan Glaciers undergo a thermal anomaly leading to a paced snow melt and avalanches of medium pace. Mostly, the snow forms hardened compact crystalline structure. Precipitation of nature leads to a loosely articulated snow formation. Such layers with the thermal and ensuing moisture laden conditions would lead to massive snow slides. Such snow slides have often caused havoc or flash floods in the tributaries of all major Rivers. How far we have advanced in modelling thermal behaviour and snow melt is not certain, but certainly, a word of caution can save Teesta, Kosi , Brahmaputra and Gangetic courses to a great extent. 8th January 2023 Vaikarita Thrust- Joshimath: Planning and urbanisation of Himalayan and sub Himalayan belt is costly and disastrous is proven again and again . Several studies on the geological formations of the fault zone over which Joshi Math, would have been taken into consideration while constructing Roads and building . Hanging Rock structures over the old rocks. As early as the 1970s seismologists have been studying foothills and the Himalayan belt. Works of Karunakaran , Ravi Vermanan, Ranga Rao, Jayagonda Perumal, AK Dubey among others have to be credited for the understanding of the metamorphosis and characterization of the sub Himalayan and Himalayan thrust fold. The Hanging Rock system and the stability of the Himalayan region especially Auli -Joshimath- Dehradun belt is an eye opener. Fault zones, in a way , have to be taken as a pattern of discontinuity in the structure of earth, that accounts for the stability of the continents. Induced Thermal Energy Acting on the rock structures creates certain anomalies that lead to tremors and earthquakes. Plate tectonics of Albert Weiner is not challenged so far, but with the behavioural patterns, cannot account for all the Geostatic mechanisms. After the Chamoli Earthquake, the planners would have taken a serious note. For a story on Tsunami for Doordarshan in 1996-1997 , while recording the seismogram, a DTC bus passing by Lodhi Road, gave a recording of 2.5 on the Richter Scale. It was an indication on the impact of trucks and buses over 4 tonnes plying on the ridges of our Himalayan mountain ranges. Vibrations of heavy vehicles create such vibrations equivalent to an earthquake of low intensity, that accounts for the disturbances in the fragile rock system of the mountain systems. Zubza intersection between Kohima and Dimapur would have been a good case . The section was seemingly curving in rather than sinking or sliding. There is no engineering to tame the mountains. We need to develop technology to minimise the impact of vibration transmitted from the rock systems. Concrete structures with deep foundations create blockades in the seepage routes and percolation of water channels. Indigenous people or mountain dwellers have developed house building technology through ages of their experience. Houses were built on a pile foundation of logs or on frames on the surface. These were earthquake resistant and did not disturb the subsoil water system or create load bearing impact on the subsoil systems. Assam on the foothills of the eastern Himalayas on an average experienced 60 to over 70 earthquakes in the past one year. Hairline cracks developed in some of the buildings, which is a warning signal. Kohima, the capital of Nagaland falls in between two fault zones. The stretch between the skywalk to Martyr Park is a quagmire. Bara Basti , which was a stable habitation, on account of the increasing construction is also slowly becoming unstable and had some landslides in the recent past. Similar is the case of Naharlagun to Itanagar segment, prone to frequent landslides. Pressure for Shillong is mounting high. A strong policy decision on planning and construction of roads and buildings and pressure mechanism of Himalayan systems is paramount. Road alignment of hills with slow gradient along the hill stretched and vibration reduction methodologies have to be implied. The costs will be high. But it will pay in the long run. Annual maintenance and disaster management costs itself is a big saving. We take into account only the project costs. Roads and buildings were not built for 5 years of the term of a government. Planning without considering long term imperatives is bad for the people and the Governments. Will the Prime Minister Narendra Modi review the matters with Geologists who have really worked on the systems rather than resorting to the deliberations of Heads of various Scientific establishments. We need to understand the gaps and need concrete national planning. Floods of 2018 in Keralam would have been an ideal case to understand the pressure mechanism of dams on the hill systems. The fall out of Environment policy on ban on clear felling had its impact in the Western Ghats. The boulders in the subsoil had become withered and acted as ground water reservoirs. With the increasing pressure from the reservoirs of dams, the capillary system activates and breaching withered rock borne water reservoirs will lead to heavy natural calamities. Hydel power generation is to be scrapped off. Impact of Dams in the Seismic activities have to be studied. The Prime Minister is from Gujarat, where the Morvi dam disaster had happened. It will take not less than 10 to 15 years to revamp the planning for Himalayan systems. Till such an alternative plan is not envisaged, all construction activities should be contained. Can we do it? Or should we wait for a great disaster? 13 February 2023 Thermal Behavioural Patterns: We have no paucity of Ministries, Departments and subdivisions. Every Government Kept on diversifying the Government Ministries and departments . In an average each of the766 Districts of the country has more than 40 departments. Net result? If administration of these departments had been functioning properly by 2010, India would have been the most powerful economy through interactive planning and coordination. The assets and properties of the officials and political leaders of some of the states put together will be equal to the budgetary deficit of those states. The siphoned off money from the state exchequer in the past 50 years would give an answer to why India could not be self-reliant. It is not with a handful of corporates , but with a handful politicians that the wealth of India became consolidated. India is a country with all the climatic features from tropical to near frigid zones and prone to all types of natural calamities from flood , drought, epidemics , Tsunamis, sea invasion and earthquakes. We have no static rules of climate. Recurrent floods and earthquakes are common in some of the regions. Drought is welcome at any point of time in some of the regions. Yet, unplanned growth of Urban areas couples the costs to state exchequer every year. We did not learn from Orissa- Bihar Famine, Morvi dam disaster, Bhopal Gas tragedy, Rajasthan Draught, Kosi, Brahmaputra, floods and frequent cyclones of coromandel coastal region. Chamoli, Latur earthquakes were dealt with no major change in our planning system. Morphology of Urban townships is something that the government's should have drawn attention to after Chamoli and Latur earthquakes. We have the case of Assam, where some of the districts experience on an average 65 to 70 low intensity earthquakes and 3 to 4 major earthquakes. In the 1990s in search of someone who has memories of the 1897 earthquake of Assam, was an eye opener. Brahmaputra was never turbulent and muddy. Uprooted trees from the hills floated over Brahmaputra. Youngsters had jumped over the logs crossing the river. Landslides became frequent after the 1870 earthquake, which was 8.3 on the Richter Scale. Villages were destroyed in Mishmi Hills. After a gap of 53 years, another massive earthquake hit Assam in 1950. Guwahati still bears some of the remainder. The second major shake beyond doubt had brought about geological instability. By the 1980s, Urban and metros of India became infested with Sick Buildings. It was the time to have urban planning for earthquake resistant and healthy buildings with safe passages and evacuation plans. But we were negligent. Disaster Management is not about a wakeup call after a disaster. The narrow lanes with vehicles parked on the roads would make it impossible for ambulances and firefighters. Unplanned road construction, urbanisation, and dams in the Himalayan region is a potential threat to the stability and safety of the region. Submerging Joshimath range should not be taken in isolation. Thermal behaviour studies of Lalitpur and Rampur may give a roadmap to a larger understanding . Thermal index research, heat wave studies and Glacier melt studies all need to be coordinated with Thermal satellite images to draw inferences. The National Capital Region was with the idea to relocate Central Government offices and reduce the population load on Delhi. Did it work out the way it was envisaged? The Ministry of Environment and Urban Development would have to work together and generate a plan for relocating the congested colonies of the Metros and create a better space. Or else. . look back to ...San Francisco Fire of 1906 1st July 2024 Expanding Glacier Lakes have not been of Any concern ? 24 July 2024 Earthquake - Floods and India... Tremors in Joshimath - Chamoli belt , Leh and Afghanistan should not be taken lightly falling to low intensity. It indicates instability developing in Himalayan system. Expanding Glacial Lakes and secondary layers lead to glacial sliding. If nothing happens it is good. But a basic observation and alert is highly commendable Delhi, and satellite towns will have to plan for restructuring the Colonies and villages in a phased manner. Walled City has become more vulnerable and a Vertical Earthquake of 6.5 to 8 lasting for more than 40 seconds can be critical for Old Delhi, and South Delhi to Mehrauli belt. Seismic Hazard Data, generated periodically has to be evaluated jointly by a team of Urban Development, Ministry of Home Affairs, NITI Ayog, and Ministry of Defence, which needs a permanent subcommittee and technical core Team in coordination with Disaster Management Authority or some other arrangement would become a necessity. National Capital Territory extends Up to Rajasthan, covering some areas Punjab, Haryana and UP, has an area of nearly 55,100 sq. Km. Administration and policy makers should not step into arguments on the seismicity of Aravali Folds or Delhi Moradabad - Sohna -Faults and Haridwar Ridges and probable inequalities. Like the Shillong Fold quake 1897 had its second shake along the Subin sari - Tibet Basin earthquake after 53 years . the 1950 earthquake devastated Parts of NEFA and Assam. Brahmaputra Changed its behaviour and Assam became Vulnerable to Flood waves. Destruction and Peril of Assam continues. The Assam Government in 1953 passed the embankment Act but breaching of Embankments continues. The Brahmaputra Board was set up in 1980 . Assam is a glaring example of catastrophic chain reaction from earthquakes. Sarb Ananada Sonowal - Narendra Modi understanding in 2014 for over a 4000km permanent embankment would have been a solution, but should be completed in between two flood seasons. Embankments need enough mechanism to shear off the forces of destructive course acting on the laterals. Otherwise, embankments will not be a permanent solution. Yet , the flood warning system which was planned in early 1990s , could not become a reality. Assam should not be taken as with the other states, as it bears the burden of flood waters from China, Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur and Meghalaya . Assam should have demanded a share of the damage control from these states and World Bank through a UN Arrangement should have paid to India on the account from China. It reminds of the Indo Japan Treaty on the Second World War, and neither Manipur, Nagaland or Assam state was aware of such a payment GoI received from Japan. These were the three states affected by the Second World War. We have our own technicalities in policy making and Administration and the same is what the Earthquake Prone Regions face. The National Capital Region, if a survey is conducted, would have more than 80% of the existing buildings under the category of Sick and inhospitable buildings. More than 70% of the people would be suffering from Sick Building Syndrome due to the conditions at workplaces and living spaces . National Disaster Management should have been looking into the safety and hazards of people and would have by now prepared masterplans for restructuring the Seismically Active Regions of the country. Time, every second is precious. Onset of a seismic activity in a Zone should be immediately Sounded as an evacuation warning. Communication signals travel faster than Seismic waves. Few seconds is enough to avoid or minimise casualties. Now we have well developed mobile telephony that can have alert and warning data systems . In the last three years , the number of earthquakes in the Delhi NCR region has been increasing and it should not be taken up lightly. 19 July 2025 China and India to take note of Bow Glacier . Recent incident of Rock Slides at Banff National Park last June should be seen as a warning for India and China. China is moving ahead with the second stage of Dam across the River Brahmaputra. The construction started with a grand Groundbreaking Ceremony attended by the top Chinese Communist Leadership at Nyingchi. Choice of Nyingchi for the function was to send a strong force to India, being very near the border with Arunachal Pradesh. Yearlong Tsang Po River, as the Siang River is known in Tibet and down as Brahmaputra, is expected to generate more power than the Three Gorges project of China. Based on the behaviour of the Rocks at the Banff National Park on 19 June 2025, near to the Bow Glacier falls, the Tsang Po Project will have severe deleterious impacts along the downstream , that falls on the other side of Tibetan ranges. 1st August 2025 Bogdanovich Glacier Under threat! Fears of Phreatic Explosions. Lava from Klyuchevskoy Volcano is flowing towards the south eastern slope. Till late yesterday, the flow has crossed 1.5 Kms and is inching towards the largest Glacier of Kamchatka Region in the east coast of Siberia. Lava can lead to Phreatic Explosions that can eject huge volumes of steam into the atmosphere. The explosion can cause boulders to break off. The resulting ash and dust can reach a height of up to 10 Km. Following the massive earthquake of 8.8 M on 31 July, earthquakes continue to recur in the east coast Kamchatka. Kuril and adjoining islands Kuril and other islands of the archipelago so far had a swarm of over 120 moderates to low intensity. ranging in magnitude from 3.5 to 6.7, earthquakes in the last 24 hours according to the Ministry of Emergency of the Region. Iwate Prefecture and the East coast of Japan had nearly three earthquakes on 31 July-. The nature of the shake up seems to have created a disturbance in the formations of the Holocene Epoch, if so the subsequent bouncing of waves can continue periodically till August end or mid-May. A review on the tectonic studies so far carried on the Archipelago would lead to new findings in the wake of the current series aftershock waves 5th August 2022 Rampur To Vaikom. Rampur is the base set up by the National Remote Sensing Agency to study the thermal behaviour of Glaciers. Understanding on the snow melt is important for the flow pattern of the river Yamuna that is the lifeline of the states . Similarly, models were created based on such parameters in 1985- 86 and from 1988 to 1999. The notion that rapid melting of Himalayan Glaciers would dry up River Ganga Had been dispelled by such observations to a great extent. Central Water Commission Report on 2018 floods, mentioned that water released from the dams did not account for 2% of the volume of floods .This report saved the state government from the mismanagement of Water level in the dams. It requires minimal sense to calculate the volume added to the rain equivalent to cloud burst in the three districts of the hills, Quilon - Pathanamthitta - Idukki- Ernakulam - Palakkad belt which has 47 dams in a row , which includes the oldest dam of over a century old. . How to calculate the intensity of rains in the catchment areas of the Travancore belt of western Ghats is not yet explored by the Hydrogeologists. If such a study could be initiated , it would be ideal to empty the Reservoir levels to a safe level to maintain the balance of flow and storage level of Reservoirs. The climate Changes in the Central Travancore took its origin with the Sabari Giri Project. Within a span of 20 years after the SabariGiri project, nearly 40 Dams came into being. Most damaging factor to this was the Environmental Act, that banned selective Clear felling of trees in the vulnerable Zones of the peripheral fringes of Catchment areas. Withering of boulders and rock structures were not understood. The “Man and Biosphere Committee “ Report did not carry extended localised considerations. Such modelling was a prerequisite, when the state engineers Reservoirs, that have potential to generate seismic pressure zones. It is a known fact that the reservoir of the vulnerable Mullaperiyar Dam itself is set over two fault zones. What about Idukki Arch Dam which would hold the excess flow of the Mullaperiyar? The low intensity seismic activity and the uncontrolled detonations of quarries create adequate vibrations equivalent to earthquakes of 2 to 4 on the Richter scale. The vibration of heavy vehicles produces waves equivalent to. 4 on the Richter scale was observed in the meteorological station at Lodhi Road in the 1990s. Yet, such data could not be used to limit the load bearing capacity of heavy vehicles in the unstable soil formations of our hill roads. The result is heavy landslides along the roads . Where economy vs natural damages in the long run, preference should be on the damages. Long term impact analysis should be the prerequisite for human intervention with natural systems. Alternate Environmental Engineering is mandatory in every project that has deleterious impact in the natural system. Low intensity seismic activity continuously generated by human intervention adds to the thermal behaviour. Tropical Climatic conditions of vulnerable Zones do not permit high rise buildings above the green canopy level. The maximum height of trees should be the upper limit of buildings. The impact of such radiating structures in inducing climatic changes in the past 50 years and thermal behaviour is ignored. Development is not denigration of natural systems. Whether man made structures above 120 feet is permissible in Keralam is to be looked into. Reservoirs, with the subsystems of radiant structures, converge thermal impact to specific zones. Vaikom seems to be an ideal zone for data analysis on the thermal behaviour and precipitation in the catchment areas of three districts. ( During a talk with Anil Biswas former Chairman of Vaikom Municipal Council somewhere in April , he talked about the phenomenal temperature in Vaikom. Then I had told him that the thermal behaviour from Vaikom to Guruvayur is an indicator of Intensity of rain. It will be heavy rains this year by late July August.) Quilon to Cherthala is a separate climatic Zone . A thermal modelling for Keralam State has to be initiated at the earliest. Or else, by 2028 to 30 or even before that upper Kuttanad belt will be rendered inhabitable to a great extent. Lowe Kuttanad should be saved from getting submerged 1st August 2024 Notification of Natural Calamities and Disasters: Government should Notify the Names, Occupation, Dependents their annual income , compensation , resettlement along with Head of accounts and file numbers of each and every person who lost lives or went missing during Natural Disasters and Calamities Governments should have separate Pages in their portals for such disclosures. We had Prime Ministers from the States Worst Affected by Natural Calamities and Disasters: PV Narasimha Rao : Andhra Pradesh – state Prone to cyclones: Dr. Manmohan Singh: Assam- Frequent Floods and landslides; Narendra Modi-Gujarat: Morbi Dam Disaster , worst flood of 2005. A Democratic Country sends representatives to Parliament and state legislature in lieu of each citizen of the electorate. To say ,through the representative, the voter himself is a member of the Houses. Each and every citizen has to be accounted in the Government with name and details, and has every right and Privileges as a legislator. Policies that are directed towards and that are directly for the People should reach the hands to the People- each citizen. Where is that Report? In 1978- 79, Keralam State PWD had conducted a study on the strength of Mullaperiyar Dam. The conclusion of the study was 1. Constructing an alternative dam and diverting the water 2. Reinforce the existing dam with a pile foundation. 3. Withering of the existing structure to be studied. At the time Achuta Menon Government had renewed the agreement with Tamil Nadu Government, the structure had already crossed its structural stability and was at a point of time to be decommissioned. The Renewed Agreement falls foul of the rights of the scheduled Tribes of the Reservoir and catchment areas. It is the law of the land that Tribal Land cannot be alienated. Mullaperiyar Dam cannot be said to be a dam for Charity. It's water is used for Productive activities including farming which is a commercial activity. At the time of renewal, Ownership of such lands were reverted to the legal heirs of the Dam site who were displaced without proper compensation and opportunities for livelihood. A share of the costs and benefits derived by the waters of Mullaperiyar Dam has to be appropriated for the welfare of the hamlets of the displaced tribes or the Tribal Welfare of the tribes of the erstwhile Travancore region. Without proper procedure, and not even a report on the tribal situation, and the environmental aspects and the seismic impact, the agreement by all norms falls foul of all norms. The reality is that if Mullaperiyar Dam structures get breached, the flood gates will not run over Tamil Nadu State. It will have a cumulative impact on the Idukki Reservoir System , till date, Mullapperiyar has faced h continuous heavy rains of an average less than 100mm of continuous rain in the catchment areas less than 5 to six hours , whereby, the Dam management authorities can sit and relax. But, the Keralam state government should red the spinning changes in the Jet streams and a situation where a couple of Pressure systems ion the Southern Indian ocean can unleash a series of Cloud bursts leading incessant rains above 200mm for 4 to 5 hours in the catchment areas of Mullaperiyar and Idukki dams. The 13 Spill ways of Mullaperiyar will fail to empty the Pressure to the scale 70,000 to 90,000 Cu Secs or more mud and slurry of high viscous nature gushing from the catchment areas to the outdated structure. Idukki Dam will have to bear the casualty The report of the 2018 flood was never revalidated. The massive flood waters that created phenomenal heights of 2 to 3 meters of course were accounted to be caused by a negligible release of 2% of dam waters! How many rain gauges were in working condition in the catchment areas to calculate the rundown could not be ascertained. None of the dams of the state or may be in the country had been desilted after they were commissioned. The sediment levels deceive the actual water level in the reservoirs. The seepage routes most of them would have become plugged by the reverse pressures. Conservation measures have made the root systems penetrate the boulders creating high Pressure- deep layers of subsoil water systems. ‘Water finds its level’ is a school lesson. Reservoirs in a 20 to 30 year period have created a new water column in the peripheral hills creating a highly volatile , unstable hydrogeological mechanism. The frequency Ground water breaches and Hill Slides will lead to de massive destructions in every rainy season or whenever seismic activities occur. Keralam will have to take a concrete step in taking over the control and regulation of Mullaperiyar Dam, revert the land title to the Tribes who were displaced for over a century. The Law is firm on the land ownership of the tribes. “ Tribal lands can never be alienated” . The state was negligent on the bearing of 5th schedule of the Constitution while reviving the century old contract in 1979. Travancore State and Madras Presidency had no constitutional existence. Tamil Nadu and Keralam did not hold the same geophysical and Geopolitical sense and meaning and application in 1979 as it did in 1879. During the 29 years of the Contract from 26 January 1950, the 5th schedule was in force on the tribal rights. Tamil Nadu was to pay the share of the commercial gains of the water to the Tribals either to the state Government or maintained the amounts in an escrow account. Water is not a free commodity when routed through a made by a manmade structure , The costs of over 82 lacs spent by Madras Presidency were reverted to the Union of India by virtue of Transfer of Properties and cannot claim to have no book value at the time of renewing the agreement , as the life of the structure had expired. The anomalies in the renewed agreement have to be taken into account. Save three districts from getting wiped off. The Government of India should be concerned about the change in the Landscape of the South West Coastal region of India.