THIRD POLE DYNAMICS: SAVE SOUTH ASIA FROM PERIL

Himalayan - Hindukush-Tibetean Glacier Systems Intention of this paper is to point out the need for a collective effort of the countries falling under the Himalayan Glacier and drainage system. The main three nations India , China and Pakistan have a huge trust deficit and military driven interests which has become a major concern of regional stability and Peace. Both China and Pakistan are not taking into cognisance the long term imperatives of geological impact by the way of combat equations supportive of each other towards their revanchist designs on India, Though the concentration of the glacial formations are more towards the Tibetan side, yet, world has limited access to the natural calamities happening in the region. The whole Himalayan Region of a vast landscape of 50 lac Sq. km, of which consists of over one lac sq.km stretch of Glaciers was coined the name “Third Pole” by Marcel Kurz in 1933. The drainage system of the Third Pole is the mainstay of food security, economic growth and forms the life line of the biotic system of over ten countries directly and a few more countries. Hindu Kush ranges cannot be seen in isolation, in the hydrological system of Sistan Basin. Hamoun Wetlands connecting Afghanistan and Iran cannot be treated in isolation from the Himalayan system. The stability of the human race though the inconsistencies in the climatic conditions in Asia and parts of Europe is attributed by the Himalayan system, extending from Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Afghanistan, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, and Myanmar and further down to Thailand , Vietnam and Cambodia, besides China India and Pakistan. A new initiative took off in Beijing in 2009 under the auspices of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research. The first Third Pole Environment Workshop drew up participants from as many as 15 countries China, India and Pakistan are the core members of the Third Pole Environment programmes together with the regional Afghanistan, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. Over the years, many countries joined the scientific partnership programmes viz. Canada, Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Norway, Switzerland and the United States. This marked the beginning of an integrated approach on the environmental changes and sustainability of the Himalayan and the North Pole glacier systems. From Beijing 2009 to Reykjavík, Iceland in 2011 TPE opened up yet another phase in the global initiatives towards the Glacier systems. Though the New Delhi edition of 2011 was shifted to Dehradun in 2013, an effort towards a Comprehensive Climate Assessment Report was set into motion. Third Pole Environment dialogues and partnerships widened with the active entry of the UAE Government and in 2022, became an integral part of the COP27 in Egypt. Glaciers of the Himalayas rising above 12,000 feet pose several challenges in the process to assess their dynamics and threat factors. Nearly 267 large formations of 10sq. Km and above are critical ones. India has tracked as many as 9,575 glacier lakes . On the Western side of the Himalayas, the Hindukush ranges spanning across 60,000 sq. km nearly one tenth of the area are glacier formations numbering over 54,252 glaciers. The vastness and the operational environmental system of this glacier system might have prompted researchers like Jack Ives and Bruno Messerli to consider Hindukush Glacier system as the “Water Tower of Asia” In the eastern sector, as many as Two Hundred or more pose the potential risk of creating flood havocs. The oldest reports on Glacier Outbursts in India is of the 1926 Chong Kumdan Glacier of Ladakh region of the erstwhile Princely state of the Dogras. Though clear scientific data may not have been worked out, the Glacier was said to have created a barrage that blocked the drainage of the Shyok River. In October, the snow melt created a high pressure lake system that is said to have accounted for the Glacier Lake outburst. The Cirenmaco Glacial Lake outburst in 1981 subsequent to an avalanche breached the moraine ridge emptying as many as 200 lac cubic meters of water to the Bhote and Sun Koshi drainages. ChoraBari lake outburst of Uttarakhand in 2013 and the Nepal GLOF in August 2026 happened during the monsoons. Time and again, it has been observed that Glaciers on the eastern side of the Himalayas in the Indo Tibetan region are prone to outbursts and flash floods. Yet, the revanchist designs of Pakistan and China pose a major hindrance to have active coordinated research and satellite data sharing. India is said to have only 46 meteorological observation stations in the Himalayan region. Partly the data would be contributed by the Defence Geoinformatics Research Establishment . The Establishment has established stations in Kashmir and Ladakh for gathering information on avalanches. Snow and Avalanche Study Establishment together with the Geo Informatics Establishment accrues a larger role in the area with respect to the stability of Siachen Glaciers. Academic research has figured that the Himalayan segment of Arunachal Pradesh has lost as many as 110 glaciers between 1998 and 2020 reducing the total numbers to 646. The state has enlisted 27 glacier Lakes in the High Risk Category 16 in the Dibang Valley. Anjaw 3, Tawang 6 , Shi Yomi and Kurung Kumey have one Glacier lake. Eastern segments of the Himalayas have uneven rainy conditions throughout the year. Except for the little time between April to May or some times with a couple of weeks difference in the both ends, the Gorichen ranges experience intermittent precipitations. The shifting glacier lakes could be a natural phenomenon. Secondary snowfall and formations of glacier lakes often are unstable formations that slide off leaving dry dykes caused by abrasions. There have been growing concerns about the anomalous snowmelt in the Khangri Glaciers. Disappearance of Glacier lakes if ,are to be taken as a permanent disaster, it would take observation over a transient period of Climatic Condition. In 2023 October, South Lohanak Glacier breaching led to flash floods in Sikkim. The state has 40 Glacier Lakes, 16 of them anticipated to be of catastrophic impact in the outbursts. The exact number of Glacier lakes in Himachal Pradesh has shown random growth in numbers during the past three decades totalling around 109 with 12 of them being placed in the high risk category. Uttarakhand has 1,200 Glacier lakes of which 13 fall under the high risk category. Major tributaries of the Indus River – Ravi, Beas, Chenab are Sutlej fed by the glaciers of Himachal Pradesh. All major river systems of India originate from Uttara Khand . Kashmir and Ladakh constitute the larger Glacier system of approximately 18, 000 Glaciers along the Pir Panjal, Zanskar. Ladakh ranges. Kashmir has 540 and Ladakh 3,200 Glacier lakes. Details about the glacier lake systems of Aksai chin are not known except for the 129 glaciers and Aksay Qin Lake. All the Himalayan -Hindukush Glacier systems have cross border linkage and the Glacier lake outbursts will affect one or more countries. For the people living in the direct impact zones, the first layers are mostly not proficient to understand the technological terms and to interpret the satellite data. The military and commercial interests of the countries on either side of the Himalayan system can be disastrous in the coming years. Thermal devices of high intensity in the region, nuclear tests and large reservoirs have an impact on the glacier systems. Amidst the global concerns on the acceleration of snowmelt in the Himalayan-Hindukush region, the stability of the Cryosphere should be taken up as the collective responsibility of the member nations of the Third Pole Environment. ‘Glacier Retreat’ should not be taken by the governments as a mere academic theorization, but it would be leading to disastrous spells that would pose severe challenges to the South Asian countries. Apart from the impact on food production, the governments will have to face huge costs for damage controls, natural catastrophes and disasters , which would create a negative trend in the economic growth in the coming two decades and ahead. None of the countries have incorporated these concerns in to the planning process, except for a passing remark and some thinking in the context of global Climate Change. Education, life style and the technological initiatives would require a random shift in the paradigms to create a comfortable governance with minimal impact on the day today living of the largest segment of the global human population.